The Unthinkable in the Midst of Perfection

I’ve been tracking Brazilian football since I was 14 — first as a fan in London, then as an analyst at ESPN Brazil. Over 20 years, I’ve seen underdogs rise, giants fall, and VAR decisions change history.

But nothing prepared me for Paris Saint-Germain’s performance against Botafogo.

Yes, Botafogo — the club from Rio that plays in Brazil’s second tier. Not even ranked among the top clubs in domestic power rankings.

And yet… they held PSG at bay.

This wasn’t just an upset. It was a seismic event in modern football logic.

Why This Was Different from Every Other Surprise

Let’s be clear: Chelsea winning the Champions League in 2012 was shocking. A bunch of aging stars clinging to glory after Mourinho left? That made sense.

But this? No excuses.

Paris wasn’t tired. They weren’t missing key players. They weren’t playing out of form.

They were on fire. Two consecutive demolition jobs on top-tier European clubs — Bayern Munich twice? Just casual lunchtime appetizers for them.

A team like that should have crushed any mid-tier side by midnight. Ten goals? Expected.

Yet they didn’t even reach five.

That’s when my spreadsheet started screaming: Something is wrong here.

Data Doesn’t Lie — But Emotion Does

I ran the model again: possession stats, xG (expected goals), defensive pressure zones, transition efficiency.

Everything pointed toward domination by PSG.

But reality said otherwise: Botafogo had more shots on target than PSG in the second half?

crazy? — yes, — but true.

to be fair, they did get lucky with one red card, but still: they played like veterans, not debutants against champions.

did they prepare better? Maybe not better than us, but certainly differently— tactical discipline beyond their league level, due to foreign scouts and video analysis teams we didn’t know existed? This is where my inner ENTJ kicks in: I hate anomalies because they break models—but sometimes, they reveal truths about how football evolves.